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June CPI Rises, As Expected

U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in five months in June amid higher costs for some goods, suggesting tariffs were starting to have an impact on inflation and potentially keeping the Federal Reserve on the sidelines until September. Softening demand as consumers hunker down, however, is limiting price increases for services like airline fares and hotel and motel rooms, keeping underlying inflation muted for now. That trend, if sustained, could ease concerns of a broad-based rise in price pressures from tariffs.

U.S. Trade Policy

Trump Tariffs on Table, Again

President Donald Trump on Wednesday sent letters dictating new U.S. tariff rates on at least seven more countries’ imports, leaning into his aggressive approach to resetting America’s global trade relationships. The latest letters, revealed by Trump via Truth Social screenshots, were sent to the leaders of the Philippines, Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Iraq, Libya and Sri Lanka. Trump had teased the announcement Tuesday evening, writing on social media that he will release a “minimum of 7 Countries” on Wednesday morning and an “additional number of Countries” in the afternoon.

U.S. Employment

Payrolls are Popping!

Job growth proved better than expected in June, boosted by government hiring, as the labor market showed surprising resilience and likely took a July interest rate cut off the table. Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 147,000 for the month, higher than the estimate for 110,000 and just above the upwardly revised 144,000 in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. April’s tally also saw a small upward revision, now at 158,000 following an 11,000 increase. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February and against a forecast for a slight increase to 4.3%.

U.S. Federal Reserve

Fed Holds Rates Steady

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept interest rates steady amid expectations of higher inflation and lower economic growth ahead and still pointed to two reductions later this year. With markets expecting no chance of a central bank move this week, the Federal Open Market Committee kept its key borrowing rate targeted at a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December. Along with the rate decision, the committee indicated, through its closely watched “dot plot,” that two cuts by the end of 2025 are still on the table. However, it lopped off one cut for both 2026 and 2027, putting the expected future rate cuts at four, or a full percentage point.

U.S. Inflation

Moderate in May

U.S. consumer prices rose slightly in May as gasoline prices remained subdued, but inflation is likely to pick up in the months as tariffs boost the cost of imported goods. The consumer price index CPI increased 0.1% last month after rising 0.2% in April, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would rise 0.2%. Year on year, the CPI climbed 2.4%, vs a 2.3% rise in the 12 months through April. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.1% after gaining 0.2% in April. The so-called "core" CPI inflation increased 2.8% on a year-on-year basis in May after rising 2.8% in April. Inflation data has been slow to reflect U.S. President Donald Trump's slew of tariffs as retailers are selling merchandise that was built up before the levies took effect.

U.S. Employment

Private Payrolls Disappoint

U.S. private employers added the fewest number of workers in more than two years in May, but the data is probably not a true reflection of the labor market, which is gradually easing amid economic uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariffs. Private payrolls increased by only 37,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since March 2023, after a downwardly revised rise of 60,000 in April, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment would advance by 110,000 following a previously reported increase of 62,000 in April.

U.S. Banking

Regulators Greenlighting Crypto at Banks?

Big U.S. banks are holding internal discussions about expanding into cryptocurrencies as they get stronger endorsements from regulators, but initial steps will be tentative, centering on pilot programs, partnerships or limited crypto trading, according to four industry executives. Wall Street giants that had been largely blocked from many crypto activities by strict regulations are poised to grow quickly. Yet the biggest lenders are still hesitant to be the first among rivals to expand too heavily into crypto in case they fall afoul of changing rules, said the four executives, who declined to be identified since they were discussing internal business plans.

U.S. Debt Rating

Down, Down Baby

Moody’s Ratings Service on Friday said it is downgrading the U.S.’s creditworthiness in response to an increase in government debt over the past decade and rising interest payments, in a blow to the Trump administration that could push up borrowing costs. The downgrade, which puts the U.S. one notch below the highest credit rating, was “driven mainly by increased interest payments on debt, rising entitlement spending, and relatively low revenue generation,” it said.

U.S. Finance

Potential Cut to Bank Requirements

U.S. authorities are preparing to announce one of the biggest cuts in banks' capital requirements in over a decade, the Financial Times reported on Thursday. Regulators were poised to reduce the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) in the next few months, the newspaper reported, citing several people familiar with the matter. The supplementary leverage ratio is a rule that requires big U.S. banks to keep an extra layer of loss-absorbing capital.

U.S. Federal Reserve

Risks Rising, Rates Unchanged

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday but said the risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen, further clouding the U.S. economic outlook as its policymakers grapple with the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs. At this point, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, it isn't clear if the economy will continue its steady pace of growth, or wilt under mounting uncertainty and a possible coming spike in inflation.

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