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Manufacturing
U.S. Economy

GDP Declines in First Quarter

The U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years in the first quarter, swamped by a flood of imports as businesses raced to avoid higher costs from tariffs and underscoring the disruptive nature of President Donald Trump's often chaotic trade policy. The Commerce Department's advance gross domestic product (GDP) report on Wednesday, however, grossly exaggerated the economy's fading prospects. Though consumer spending slowed considerably from the fourth quarter, the pace of growth remained healthy. Businesses also boosted investment in equipment, mostly information processing and transportation.
Escalator
U.S. Foreign Policy

Escalator Up or Down?

Wall Street stocks advanced on Wednesday on revived hopes for progress in the U.S.-China trade dispute and as President Donald Trump soothed fears the Federal Reserve could lose its autonomy with reassurances that he has "no intention of firing" Fed Chair Jerome Powell. All three major U.S. stock indexes pared gains by the closing bell. They gathered momentum during the session after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said high tariffs between the U.S. and China were unsustainable and Trump signaled he was open to easing trade tensions between the world's two largest economies.
Pause Buttons
U.S. Policy

Start, Stop, Pause, Rewind

President Donald Trump on Wednesday dropped new tariff rates on imports from most U.S. trade partners to 10% for 90 days to allow trade negotiations with those countries. Trump announced the pause hours after goods from nearly 90 nations became subject to stiffer, so-called reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States. The president also said in a social media post that he was raising the tariffs imposed on imports from China to 125% “effective immediately” due to the “lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets.” China, which is the U.S.’s third-largest trading partner, earlier Wednesday said it would increase its tariff rate for imports from the U.S. to 84%.
Cityscape
U.S. Economy

Recession – On or Off the Table?

Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods unexpectedly rose in February as businesses rushed to avoid potential price increases from tariffs, likely boosting capital expenditure in the first quarter. However, the report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday did not change economists' expectations that economic growth was slowing considerably in the first quarter as businesses and households grapple with a fluid import duty environment. Orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft meant to last three years or more, increased 0.9% after advancing by an upwardly revised 3.3% in January, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecasted that durable goods orders would fall 1.0%.
Federal Reserve
U.S. Federal Reserve

Fed Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged

The Federal Reserve in a closely watched decision Wednesday held the line on benchmark interest rates though still indicated that reductions are likely later in the year. Faced with pressing concerns over the impact tariffs will have on a slowing economy, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee kept its key borrowing rate targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December. Markets had been pricing in virtually zero chance of a move at this week’s two-day policy meeting. Along with the decision, officials updated their rate and economic projections for this year and through 2027 and altered the pace at which they are reducing bond holdings.
Cool breath
U.S. Inflation

Inflation Cooler Than Expected

Prices for goods and services moved up less than expected in February, providing some relief as consumers and businesses worry about the looming impact tariffs might have on inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. The consumer price index, a wide-ranging measure of costs across the U.S. economy, ticked up a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.8%, according to the Labor Department agency. The all-item CPI increased 0.5% in January.
For Hire
U.S. Labor Market

Jobs Miss to Downside

Private sector job creation slowed to a crawl in February, fueling concerns of an economic slowdown, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Companies added just 77,000 new workers for the month, well off the upwardly revised 186,000 in January and below the 148,000 Dow Jones consensus estimate, according to seasonally adjusted figures from ADP. The total was the smallest increase since July and comes at a time when worries are rising that economic growth is slowing and worries brew that President Donald Trump’s tariff plans will spark another round of inflation. ADP said annual pay rose 4.7% in February, the same as the prior month.
House
U.S. New Home Sales

New Home Sales Continue Downward

New-home sales in the US fell at the start of the year to a three-month low, reflecting a combination of affordability challenges as well as harsh winter weather. Purchases of new single-family homes decreased 10.5% last month to a 657,000 annualized rate, according to government data issued Wednesday. That trailed the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who expected an annual rate of 680,000.
Burning
U.S. CPI

En Fuego!

U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years in January, with Americans facing higher costs for housing and food, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's message that it was in no rush to resume cutting interest rates amid growing uncertainty over the economy. The hotter-than-expected inflation reported by the Labor Department on Wednesday was likely partly due to businesses raising prices at the start of the year. However, the surge in prices offered a cautionary note to President Donald Trump's push for tariffs on imported goods, which have been panned by economists as inflationary.
Sideways bookshelf
U.S. Federal Reserve

Fed Keeps Rate Unchanged

The U.S. central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said there would be no rush to cut them again until inflation and jobs data made it appropriate. The decision and Powell's comments put Fed policy in a holding pattern at a time when the U.S. economic landscape seems both stable and wildly uncertain - with a healthy set of macroeconomic fundamentals that have changed little in recent months, but coming decisions from the Trump administration on immigration, tariffs, taxes and other areas that could prove disruptive.
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