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Japan
Foreign Currency

Yen Carry Trade Unwinds

A meltdown in world equity markets in recent days is more reflective of a wind-down of carry trades used by investors to juice their bets than a hard and fast shift in the U.S. economic outlook, analysts say. While Friday's weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data was the catalyst for the market sell-off, with Japan's blue-chip Nikkei index on Monday suffering its biggest one-day rout since the 1987 Black Monday selloff, the employment report alone wasn't weak enough to be the main driver of such violent moves, they added.
Scissors
U.S. Federal Reserve

Fed Sets Stage For September Cuts

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday but opened the door to reducing borrowing costs as soon as its next meeting in September as inflation continues coming into line with the U.S. central bank's 2% target. The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee ended a two-day policy meeting by keeping its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range. Inflation, according to the Fed's statement, was now just "somewhat elevated," a key downgrade from the assessment that it has used throughout much of its battle against rising prices that inflation was "elevated."
CrowdStrike Logo
Cybersecurity Threats

CrowdStrike Halts Global IT Systems

Cybersecurity vendor CrowdStrike initiated a series of computer system outages across the world on Friday, July 19, disrupting nearly every industry and sowing chaos at airports, financial institutions, and healthcare systems, among others. At issue was a flawed update to CrowdStrike Falcon, the company’s popular endpoint detection and response (EDR) platform, which crashed Windows machines and sent them into an endless reboot cycle, taking down servers and rendering ‘blue screens of death’ on displays across the world.
Manufacturing
U.S. Manufacturing

Domestic Manufacturing Continues Upside

Production at U.S. factories increased more than expected in June, contributing to a solid rebound in output in the second quarter, though higher borrowing costs remain a constraint for the manufacturing industry. Factory output rose 0.4% last month following an upwardly revised 1.0% increase in May, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory output would advance 0.2% after a previously reported 0.9% jump in May. Production at factories shot up 1.1% on a year-on-year basis in June. It increased at a 3.4% annualized rate in the second quarter, rebounding from the 1.3% pace of decline in the January-March quarter.
Slide
U.S. Inflation

CPI Slips, Then Slides?

The "last mile" of the U.S. Federal Reserve's battle against inflation may have shortened to a last lap after consumer prices fell in June, a long-awaited slowing of shelter cost increases took shape, and markets began pushing down yields on bonds and inflation-protected securities. The consumer price index slid 0.1% last month after being unchanged in May, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday. It was the weakest monthly reading since May of 2020, early in the pandemic, while the 3% year-over-year rise was the lowest reading in a year.
Japanese Yen
Foreign Currencies

Yen Continues to Falter

Japanese authorities will take necessary actions on currencies, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Thursday, signaling readiness to intervene in the exchange-rate market after the yen's slide to a fresh 38-year low against the dollar. "It's desirable for exchange rates to move stably. Rapid, one-sided moves are undesirable. In particular, we're deeply concerned about the effect on the economy," Suzuki told reporters.
Switzerland
U.S. Interest Rates

Swiss Cuts as US Fed Lags

The Swiss National Bank on Thursday trimmed its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, continuing cuts at a time when sentiment over monetary policy easing remains mixed among major economies. Two thirds of economists polled by Reuters had anticipated the SNB would decide in favor of a 25-basis-point-cut to 1.25%. The Swiss franc weakened in the wake of the announcement, with the Euro gaining 0.3% and the U.S. dollar up 0.5% against the Swiss currency at 8:55 a.m. London time. Following the Thursday decision, the Swiss central bank pegged its conditional forecast for inflation at 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026. The figures assume an SNB interest rate of 1.25% over the prediction period.
Hourglass
U.S. Federal Reserve

3..2..1 Fed Cut for 2024

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday and pushed out the start of rate cuts to perhaps as late as December as policymakers sketched out their view of an economy that remains virtually unchanged across its major dimensions for years to come. With growth and unemployment lodged at levels better than the U.S. central bank considers sustainable in the long run, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers were content to leave rates where they are until the economy sends a clear signal that something else is needed - through either a more convincing decline in price pressures or a jump in the unemployment rate.
Working
U.S. Employment

Pause in Payrolls?

Private job creation slowed more than expected in May, according to a report Wednesday from ADP that signals further sluggishness in the labor market. The payroll processing firm said that companies added 152,000 jobs on the month, fewer than the downwardly revised 188,000 in April and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 175,000. This was the lowest monthly level since January. Along with the slowdown in job creation, annual pay growth gains held at a 5% rate, where they have been for three months running.
Chilly person
U.S. Economy

Cooling Consumers

The U.S. economy grew more slowly in the first quarter than previously estimated after downward revisions to consumer and equipment spending and a key measure of inflation ticked down, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to possibly begin cutting interest rates before the end of the year. Gross domestic product - the broadest measure of economic activity - grew at an 1.3% annualized rate from January through March, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday, down from the advance estimate of 1.6% and notably slower than the 3.4% pace in the final three months of 2023.
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